Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Yen Long Term Elliott Count

First tings first.
click to enlarge
This HAS to hold the recent breakout. A reversal below and overlap of the .618 retrace spells finito.
So lets move on to the longer term implications for this very crowded trade if that happens.
Intermediate Term;
 click to enlarge
A reversal below 117.73 would obviously imply a completed 5 count up from 105.20, and so one needs to look again at the longer term context to see what THAT might imply. But in the meantime the above Fibonacci milestones will be looked for as retrace targets and support. And my guess is that a lot of longs got in on the break up above 112.50 (coincidentally the 50% retrace) so want to see that level hold.
Longer Term;

Unfortunately the above chart does not capture the beginning of the wave up starting in 07 at 80.59.
However note the first leg up (labeled a) carries to 103.33 or 22.74. the next leg , the c, is 24.29, and e is currently 14.30 at today's high of 119.66. That makes the e =.63 of the a , and .59 of the c wave. So there are some fib. relationships linking the legs up from 80.59 and it is therefore possible that if/when the current leg exhausts itself, a deep pullback could be in the works. A .62 retrace targets .95.

Very Long Term;


Note the massive volume at the  2007, 80.59 lows .
Anyway there is a clear 5 wave move up from 1971 to 1995. The pullback to the lows of 1998 can be seen an A wave, and the entire structure up from there as a B wave within the longer term consolidation, most likely an Elliott flat type. That would imply the current move up be contained by 124 and a retest, or close, of the 1998 67.87 lows as the C wave target.
The volume seen above is a little tricky for this count as it's the opposite of what one would expect at the b of B. Still this trades as part of a pair and the other currencies were actually topping.














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