Friday, August 20, 2010

Euro Update

From Tue. Aug .17
The Euro move down clearly counts as a 5 wave move. Therefore there will be at least one more leg down ( if it's an abc structure) and potentially 2 more (if it's a full count of 5 ). This bounce then is corrective, which it looks, and likely contained by resistance represented by the previous highs and Fib. retrace points. 1.2910 to 1.2960, the .382 retrace."
It topped out at 1.2922

 click to enlarge
Anything is possible in this market (plus it's Aug.) and maybe we are looking at a down and under "b" wave, with a "c" to the upside waiting in the wings to complete the 2, but I doubt it.

Now longer term instead of a 1, 2,  it may turn out to be an A and B and the C=A point at 123.22 will have to be watched.


 And so far I don't see any impulse wave up.


This mornings fundamental news "reason " for the drop;   
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The head of Germany's Bundesbank surprised economists and investors Friday, indicating in a television interview that the European Central Bank would continue to provide a range of emergency loans to euro-zone banks through the end of the year......
"Axel Weber's comments are clearly dovish and negative for the euro, as they indicate no further exit from the ECB before Q1 2011 at the earliest," said Lars Tranberg Rasmussen, economist at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. "This is a new Weber, who is running for the top job, so the uber-hawk has gone on vacation."
"I really get the impression that he's doing a good job in presenting himself as electable as the next ECB president, which raises concerns about how much he will keep his hawkish bias if he is the next ECB president," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "

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