Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Yen Look Out

The so called risk on/ risk off trade , and highly correlated global asset markets over the last couple years has forced close attention to the USD, and particularly the Euro and Yen when considering potential WTI price objectives.
Context:
from May 28  Yen Again
from June 15 Yen Look Out
from June 29 Asia etc.
from July 9 Yen

click to enlarge
The 1995 high of  1.2478 to the 1998 low of .6787 is retraced 85% at 1.1624 (pardon me for moving the decimal around, really reflects the chart expression).
The high of Nov.2009 was at 116.21
So obviously with the 85% retrace about to be tested close observation will be in order.
Long Yen is a crowded trade. And I believe the count I have is getting rather mature, with one more high potentially completing at least a medium term objective.

Note the RSI neg divergence.
 There has been a lot of abc structuring since 1998 so I , II and III may turn out to be abc.
The III leg will equal the I or c=a , at 116.11. 





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