Thursday, July 8, 2010

Really?

I suppose the HFT bots may have completely taken over, but sharp short covering jam jobs have always been a feature of bear markets, esp one day wonders. The big question in my mind is, whether this close to Aug and the usual low volume ( can it get lower?) associated with that month, there isn't a longish DELAY in the anticipated -3- of 3 of III down as the algo's rule? Sept. IS the seasonally worst month for equities.

 WTI
The high of 147 for WTI was achieved on July 7 2008 of course, and the rest of that month was kinda tough ( down $37),  but August 2008 was relatively stable. There is a seasonal high that hits in late August.
 click to enlarge
The countervailing argument IS that, as we know, July can see big downside, and these charts just don't look anything but bad -an overlong, choppy corrective rally following a major primary 5 waves down, clearly rolling over with a Head and Shoulders set up, MACD crossing over, and not even being close to being oversold.

 Here's the SP:



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