Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Natural Gas Update

To put all this in context please take a sec to check out the last 3 posts;
from June 15 Natty Update
from June 22 Natural Gas .618 retrace
from June 30 Natty
 click to sharpen/enlarge
Natural Gas will settle below the .618 retrace of the entire structure up from 3.82 to 5.25. The next Fibonacci support, .76 will show up at 4.17. That level represents a very deep .88 retrace of the last leg up beginning on May 25th at 4.02, and really confirms that this move down is a new structure. As such it will most likely be related to the move down from  6.11 to 3.82, as either c=a @2.94, or c=.618 of a @ 3.84. Given that the .618 retrace of 2.40 to 611 hits at 3.82 as well taking that out will certainly look weak but also be expected of a new  c wave within the zig zag move down from 6.11.
The .76 retrace of 2.40 to 6.11 is at 3.30, the .85 retrace of same is at 2.95, so a  cluster of support at 2.95
BTW another ABC up from that kind of low (2.95) is to be expected and could well be a Fib multiple of the 2.40 to 6.11 move.
Shorter term:


Looking a little oversold with minor positive divergence on the hourly RSI.








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