Friday, July 2, 2010

Euro Update

Taking another look at the Euro count this morning as it approaches resistance.
June 29th , the last post on Euro, I emphasized the 50% pullback and was leaning toward caution re the short side possibilities.
" It is possible that it will trace out a diagonal ending 5th wave (like the USD did at IT'S bottom) , or more likely  the recent Euro strength will turn out to  be "a" of a 4th wave, and this move down "b", with eventual targets at 1.14 or even parity. But I reiterate the bulk of the Euro move is behind it."
Since then it's popped almost 5 cents.
 I believe that it HAS been a 4th wave up,  and it is currently at .382 retrace and 4th of lesser degree. Informing that opinion is the 3=1.61 x 1 relationship in above chart, a common relationship.




The Euro will have to overlap the 1.2145 low , the 'b" , to confirm a reversal but an early tell will be weakness under the 50% retrace of "c". The bulls would be looking for an accelerating 3rd wave up not a deep retracement.
So a series of 2 lower lows, for 5 and V,  would complete the C down. 5=1 around the 1.15, and C=A at 1.14

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