Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Yen Look Out

The Yen has been the great tell on the direction of all other assets (inversely) for the last month.
It is challenging to count, esp shorter term. But to review;
The 1995 high of 126 was followed by a horrific drop to 68 in 1998.  Since then we seen a series of abc legs within that range. ( From May 29 Yen Again)
 click to enlarge/sharpen
The high of 1.1621 in late 2009 is the highest high since the 1998 low (though likely an x wave). Note the characteristics of a triangle consolidation since the late 2008 high, narrowing ranges, overlaps, flattening of the MACD, and RSI.
Sept Daily

And the triangle within the triangle. 

click to enlarge

New highs over 110.75 would strongly suggest that a breakout and challenge of the 116.28 high is underway. Nothing between 116.28 and 126.


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