Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Dead Cats

In this Global market in which the risk on / risk off trade seems to predominate across all asset classes,  it appears the risk off is resuming with a  key reversal day yesterday and long term tech break out on the JPY
The probability that we are resuming the downtrend begun in April is high. Whether you use Elliott or something more mundane like the head and shoulders pattern found on equities and WTI , the measuring methods target lows significantly below current levels, like 850 SP's and $48 WTI.
click to enlarge and sharpen
Until the VIX exceeds the previous highs around 48 this is a technical situation that has limited upside risk and substantial downside risk.. Equities anyway. The Fib. .618 retrace on the SP will be the next marker.

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