Spot Continuation Daily
click to enlarge/sharpen
Couple of interesting things here; an obvious head and shoulders neckline break ( measured target 4.22), an overlap of what some might have hoped was the 1st leg up at 4.55 ( more apparent on the August contract chart @4.66) and penetration of the 50% retrace point.
click to enlarge
This chart looks obviously weaker with a penetration of the .618 retrace and overlap of the internal1st wave of lesser degree.
Shorter term it's looking a little oversold this morning and an attempt at a back test of the neckline
would be common.
Note that at today's lows there is a c=a relationship of the legs down off the highs. The bear case would be helped along if , after a minor consolidation , the lows are taken out and another leg down materializes to create a 5 wave structure. Ideally it would stall out out south of 4.66/4.70.
Oh and BTW if this thing gets back above 4.94 it's definitely doing something different and another abc structure up to new highs would be on the menu.