Please see the June 8 Natural Gas Review
On the upside the .618 retrace of 6.11 to 3.82 is at 5.24.
On the downside a .78 retrace of 2.40 to 6.11 is 3.22
click to enlarge
Note the RSI divergence.
BTW taking a look at the charts of NG contract months further out on the curve presents a very different pattern but consistent , I think, with the general premise.
I think that what we've got on the Jan is a 1.2.3, and we are currently in a 4th wave, to be followed by a 5th putting in lower lows under 5.25 (that number again). The 4th will retrace .382 of the 3 at 6.11.
So as we go forward over the balance of the year I think most of the action will be contained by the current recent ranges + somewhat higher highs and somewhat lower lows ie. 3.22.
Seems really counter intuitive writing this with a hyper active hurricane season forecast and all that's going on in the gulf, but that's the way it goes sometimes.