Friday, June 18, 2010

WTI Targets

If you are a bear the 78.13 high is a pretty good candidate for the completion of this corrective move up.
The July WTI contract had a 50% retrace of it's entire move down and the corrective abc structure up had a perfect c=a .
If you are a bull it really needs to hold the .618 retrace of the last leg up, 72.80.
click to enlarge

VERY short term it looks like it would need to overlap the 76.18 area to look good again.

Meanwhile on the downside  just what are the risks?
If you are really into catastrophic scenarios see the May 6 WTI Overview

"The last impulse wave saw a Fib. 78% fall in the outright value from 147. to 32.40, and the next Fib. level would be an 85% deterioration from 147 for a target of 22.05.
The C is equal to A in percent terms at 19.17.
The C is equal .618 of A at 16.27."
 click to enlarge
But an alternate scenario might be an ABC down to retrace some % of the recent rally up from 32.40.
The spot month A  leg, in this scenario, from 87.15 to 64.24 is 22.91, and so C=A  at 55.22 , using 78.13 as it's beginning.
Note the .618 retrace point on the above chart.
 And of course even in the more catastrophic outlook the .618 retrace should enjoy some credibility as interim support.






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