Thursday, May 20, 2010

WTI

From May 12,
WTI Update
"The WTI may have 2 up complete today as shown. If so the implication is that the next leg down can easily equal the 1st leg or more likely be a fibonacci multiple.
3=1 at 64.46 , and 3= 1.618 of 1 at 56.72.
Lets see if the move down exhibits 3rd wave characteristics."
 
So far that appears to be the case, however the above numbers need a slight adjustment;
3=1 at 63.81, and 3= 1.618 of 1 at 56.00, reflecting the eventual 2 count .
 click to enlarge
It IS taking awhile for the 3 of3 type acceleration to appear....AND it may be this count is overly aggressive.
Obliviously overlaps of the 2 would negate this particular subwave count. 
However the  overall context has us in very early stages of a move down that is very likely to be extensive. 
WTI Overview

 click to enlarge
The overlap of 69.50 on the spot chart is highly negative, and while the roll into the July contract provides a little lift, it too will likely take that point out after some fooling around. The next glaring milestone will be the 65.05 overlap. In addition there is a Fibonacci .382 retrace of the whole move up at 66.24.
My guess is that is where the 3 of 3 will be showing up. 66/65.







 

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