Monday, May 3, 2010

WTI Update

First the current count:
                                                                           click to enlarge
Note the RSI divergence.
With "e" equal to 1.25 of "d" and 1.39 of  "c" ,  the above is still consistent with an expanding triangle. The fly in the ointment is the 90% retrace of the wave labeled 1.

The process of discovering an Elliott Wave count that makes sense and conforms to some semblance of the theory over the last 6 months has been a challenge. Expected it would be, back in August 09, with overlaps followed by reversals everywhere you looked, but this has gone on much longer than I would have guessed.
 click to enlarge
The WTI can pullback $17 to $70 and still be within the well established range seen since last Oct. 
That's a long time to wait.
The 50% spot month retrace of that whole move down is at 89.70.
You can sell the July contract at 88.75 right now.




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