Thursday, May 6, 2010

WTI Overview

The last year has been a tough slog for WTI. Since it first made a $75 print last June it has only managed to climb another 16% to 87.15 ( compare that to the Dow's 27%). It has struggled to stay above that $75 point  most of that time and only really done so in the last 2.5 mo.s.
click to sharpen

In the outright June contract it's even more evident. It's only managed to eke out an 11% gain since last year and that's been completely erased in 2.5 days.
June
click to enlarge
The above count, while on the June contract, is also roughly the same on the spot chart, and has a very high probability of being complete. The historic seasonal spring high falls right in here as well.
In both spot and contract mo., the 69.50 point is the beginning of an important structure up, though of slightly different labeling, and the .62 retrace of 69.50 to 87.15 is at 78.33.
Presuming the above count on the choppy corrective rally over the last year is complete,  what are some Elliott Wave Theory measured targets for the C or 3rd wave down?  
The last impulse wave saw a Fib. 78% fall in the outright value from 147. to 32.40, and the next Fib. level would be an 85% deterioration from 147 for a target of 22.05.
The C is equal to A in percent terms at 19.17.
The C is equal .618 of A at 16.27.




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