Tuesday, May 25, 2010

USO.. Oh... Sh@% !

Remember this post from Apr. 7? USO... OH

"This stock is not exactly ripping back up. The last nine mo.s have seen it basically range trade between the mid 30's and low 40's. At yesterdays high it had retraced 21% of the move down.
I'm looking at this chart to get some insight into the WTI count, which has been difficult to interpret. It's also of interest since GS, MS and China are the big stakeholders.
Anyway, the initial abc zig zag up was followed by a triangle ending Sept. 25 09. and then what appears to be a flat abc ending yesterday. The final flat abc was roughly 50% of the first zig zag.
Sorry no annotation."
Here's what it looks like now. Annotated version.
 click to sharpen and enlarge
Obviously nailed that, and it was VERY useful in providing insight into the WTI wave count. Could never figure out what GS, MS and China saw in this dog, as it suffered from chronic under performance due to the roll and contango market.
Anyway the current count is as follows;
 click to enlarge and sharpen
Perhaps it will serve to provide some simplified insight into where the WTI is as well this time.
Retracement to the area of the 4th of lesser degree around 32.70, and the .382 retrace of the 3 around 33.40 should contain any bounce.

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