Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Rbob Update

The above depicts a complete abc correction, retracing Fibonacci .63 of the initial 5 wave move down.
Yesterday it took out the trend line and the .62 retrace of the last c of C leg up at 2.09
The 50% retrace of the C on the weekly chart is at 2.025, the .618 at 1.93 and the overlap of c of C, of course, at 1.87.
Note the 200 day and 50 day moving avg. at 2.05 and 2.00 respectively.

 June
The 2 retraced .40, slightly exceeding the Fibonacci .382 retrace point.
Rbob is most likely in a 3 down, possibly having completed a -1- of 3 and the exact labeling will become more clear as it progresses.

So 3 = 1 at 1.879, and  3=1.618 of 1 at  1.662, from the 2.23 high of the 2 wave.
Longer term what could be expected of the next larger degree move down , the C from 2.44?
One thing for sure it's not going to equal A in $$ terms.
The initial A or 1 wave down from 3.63 was a Fibonacci .78 pullback. The C =A in % terms at .54,
and C=.618 of A at .676. .

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