Friday, May 21, 2010

Euro Update

First a little horn blowing....from Nov. 26 2009 Where Is the Euro , "A failure by the Euro from here projects to a minimum 1.2856 as C=.618 f A. And of course the C=A at 1.1435."  the Euro was trading 1.50 when that was written. And more importantly pretty much had it pegged all along the move down..see yesterday  morning's
Euro Heads Up .

The Euro bounce is corrective with a likely lower low still ahead of it to complete the move, ie 1.14/1.12. It is a crowded trade and the bulk of an obviously historic move, is probably behind us . Still risk from here to the downside at .14 , from 1.2674 to 1.12,  is significant and about equal to a 50% retrace of the whole move down from 1.5140 to 1.21, or .15, so tough call.

 click to enlarge

According to this Elliott count we are in an expanding 5th wave, with (III) likely complete and possibly (IV).  though it can certainly go to the 4th of lesser degree, and .618 retrace , at 1.31.
Point is it's still got further downside to go to complete a (V) of 5. 
 click to enlarge
 click to sharpen
This chart is from a post on May 13th and is NOT updated ...however it puts the above charts in context and the development of the Elliott count.


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