Wednesday, April 21, 2010

WTI

click to enlarge
Whatever the long and intermediate term wave count, the above chart depicts a clear 5 count down followed by a choppy overlapping corrective move retracing 50%, and terminating at the 4th of lesser degree.
In other words, it's highly likely WTI gets at least another leg down to new lows.
Given the very advanced stage of the corrective move up from 32.40,  achieving a 48% retrace, and the extreme risk of equities markets reversing after a 61% retrace for the Dow, the risk of an extended and severe drop for WTI is very high. 
Even if one is NOT looking for a C wave to new lows under 32.40 (which is a very distinct possibility) a .62 retrace of the structure up from 32.40 to 87.10  puts it at $53.

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