Friday, April 16, 2010

WTI Update

The WTI has yet to display any impulse wave characteristics on the downside. The first structure down from the highs is clearly an abc, contains lots of overlaps etc. Not much of a surprise given the 89.70 target as 50% retrace of the move down. On the other hand % retracements certainly have wiggle room and the current high represents a 48% retrace. So high alert here. Of course one of the major factors for the commodity $ inflow is the world wide stocks rally , see   Equities Revisited 
and that is in the end stages, with .61 retrace targets met (though not the top of the target zone) accompanied by extreme complacency , and bullishness.
click to enlarge
All the above suggests the somewhat greater likelihood of one last abc structure to new highs for the WTI finishing the complex series of ABC's up from 32.40. Target zone between 87.10 and 89.70.
Obviously this will represent a VERY long term top if this count is correct.  

And it is very hard to see this rally as anything other than a correction to the unforgettable impulse wave down from 147 to 32.40.

No comments:

Post a Comment