A Discussion of Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibonacci Ratio's focusing on Energy Mkt.s Crude, Products, and Natural Gas. Occasional Fundamental Analysis, Energy News and Rumor.
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So far the intermediate term support for the spot month at 3.82 , has held. That is the .618 retrace of 2.40 to 6.11 , and has been mentioned often by Crudewire in previous posts as a probable target and reversal point for this move . That is no longer the case. The move down from 6.11, esp. the last 90 cents does not look like a B wave, it trended too perfectly and it has impulse wave characteristics. Equally important, from a shorter term perspective, the action up from 3.82 has a classic abc flat look.
On the upside , the c=a at 4.40, and has retraced .236 at 4.36.
On the downside, the next Fib retrace support is .76 at 3.29.
With the equities in position to top out up here at the .618 retrace of the whole move down, accompanied by record bullish % numbers, hard to be positive on the Natural. In fact, a retest of the 2.40 level can not be ruled out.
From my last post Dec 28, " Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave." Hourly click to enlarge As can be seen, WTI is in the high side of that range and evidencing some recent weakness. It does have a "look" that could produce a higher high at the top end of the range there, or even somewhat higher. However the greater risk, short and medium term is to the downside from here. It may turn out that a "b" wave chop down is in the cards with a subsequent "c" wave up, but that kind of move can be deep and retest the lows . See above Fib retracements, particularly the .618 and .78 Longer Term Risk For Bulls AND Bears The Decline click to enlarge While the labeling of the subwaves above can be argued, including whether the wave down is completed yet or not, the $
KUDOS, and I mean it, to Biden. Real implementation will be incredibly difficult and failure will mean doom (don t think your grandchildren are going to survive in a world without plankton). By next election cycle the path the world is on will be visible to all and most likely we will see spiking carbon emissions, devastating weather catastrophes, the need for even more investment, carbon taxes, and even more weaponizing of painful choices. The pandemic definitely decreased global emissions. To stay under the limit on future emissions needed to keep climate temps under the 1.5 centigrade increase, that same decrease in emissions Y on Y has to be achieved every year until 2030. Reality No.1) Co2 and other greenhouse gas emissions have a very high correlation w Global GDP, .87 to .93 Climate change is unfortunately global so don t bother with arguments based on regional data. In the United States some progress growing GDP while cutting emissions has been achieved in some locales. Mos
WTI has a long history of affinity for Fibonacci retracement levels. It just touched the .618 retrace of this years move down. 1 yr. chart click to enlarge There is also the little issue of seasonality. click to enlarge And Hedge Funds have been piling in over the last 3 weeks. John Kemp of Reuters reports they are net long an additional 112 mml bbl wti= Brent on both Nymex and ICE. So on the downside taking out the Fib .618 retrace of the move up and break out to the upside around 51.15 will help sharpen things up. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange and energy derivatives carry a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The above is merely an abstract theoretical discussion mostly for my own entertainment, not trading advice or a recommendation.
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