Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Natural Gas

So far the intermediate term support for the spot month at 3.82 ,  has held. That is the .618 retrace of 2.40 to 6.11 , and has been mentioned often by Crudewire in previous posts as a probable target and reversal point for this move . That is no longer the case. The move down from 6.11, esp. the last 90 cents does not look like a B wave, it trended too perfectly and it has impulse wave characteristics. Equally important, from a shorter term perspective, the action up from 3.82 has a classic abc flat look. 
On the upside , the c=a at 4.40, and has retraced .236 at 4.36.
On the downside, the next Fib retrace support is .76 at 3.29.
With the equities in position to top out up here at the .618 retrace of the whole move down, accompanied by record bullish % numbers, hard to be positive on the Natural. In fact, a retest of the 2.40 level can not be ruled out.

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