Tuesday, March 9, 2010

WTI Again

click to enlarge
The Fib retrace points drawn above are from the 69.50 spot month low.
Note the 50% point is just under the 'a', and if you are counting this structure as 5 up you don't want that overlapped. 
Diagonal triangles or wedge type  patterns are usually seen at the completion of a larger structure of greater degree, and precede a powerful reversal of the trend. USD is a good recent example.
Is this what WTI has in place? The initial move down off the high is difficult, there is a double top at 82.41, and lots of overlaps , all making for a less confident count. 
So watching for an accelerating leg down through the first Fib retrace of .23 @ 79.37 then the fib 50% level at 76. On the upside, the high today at 81.63 needs to be taken out to target a test of 84.

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