Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Natural Gas

Natural Gas finally seems to have found some buying after double bottoming at the Fib. .618 retrace of the spot month 2.40 to 6.11 structure. The trend line defining the very consistent move down over the last 6 weeks is crossing just overhead and new highs on the day will take that out.
click to enlarge
The  ABC structure up from 2.40 is probably complete. The 6.10 high is right on target,  seeNatty  or any of the last month's post's.  On the spot chart the C=.66 of A, a similar relationship as 2 to 3. On the Feb contract we have C=A.......
The structure down will have to be closely observed;  prob. another abc, with no new lows under 2..40, targeting some Fib retrace ie .618 at 3.82. That  spot month 2.40 low was an 85 % retrace of 15.78 and ending an ABC down that took years to complete. This little abc up is too abbreviated to correct that."

Ok, so it only took 2.5 months to get to  the .618 looked for, thanks to the unrelenting move down pictured above, and frankly I had thought it would be choppier, more abc like than what we have so far seen ( but hey).
The italics above explain why risk of a significant ( in this markets terms ) move up from here is likely, either from here or the .76 retrace at 3.30.
Expectations of the next series of ABC' up would be modest in recent historic terms but a structure equal to the first ABC up from 2.40 to 6.11  implies a 100% gain from these levels.  

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