Monday, March 15, 2010

Natural Gas

click to enlarge
Note that I am using the spot mo. 5.58 high for the Fib retrace points.
The .382 retrace and the 50% retrace are also the 4th of lesser degree highs. 
We came close to but did not hit the 50% retrace of 2.40 to 6.11, which is just under the low at 4.26.
This move down is probably an -a-, with further lows ahead AFTER some a choppy -b- back up, to 4.80 or 4.94 as .382  and 50% respectively.The .618 retrace is at 5.08.
looking for a -b- up followed by further a move down is predicated on the the early legs from the 6.11 high looking like an abc followed by a consolidation that took it back to 5.58. This trending move down from there does not look like an abc ...yet. 
But if for instance the -b- were to carry to 5.08, a .618 retrace of 5.58 to 4.33,  and -c- was equal to -a-, it hits at 3.83, just over the .618 retrace of 2.40 to 6.11 at 3.81.
Make a nice B wave down target.

1 comment:

  1. This downleg may be complete here at 4.280 since 4.278 is the 23.8% expansion of the previous move up of the April contract from 4.595 to 5.945.

    If there is any further weakness, I expect it to only go as far as 4.259 as this is both the 50% retracement of the front month move from 2.409 to 6.108; as well as being the 76.4% expansion of the abc move down off the top from 6.108 to 5.060 of the front month contract.

    PeterB

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