Friday, March 5, 2010

Natural Gas

From Feb. 16,   Natural Gas Update
"the corrective choppy move up from the 5.06 lows has taken long enough that the whole thing appears to be an abc structure, correcting the fist abc down. That spot month  6.11 to 5.06 move of 1.05 will be equaled at 4.50 if todays high completed the abc structure up. That is just under the Mar contract low of 4.56, and would be consistent with a B wave of larger degree."
and Feb 19, Natural Gas Outlook   for a longer term context.

The move down from 5.58 is looking done or nearly so, with an extension in the 3rd wave including a gap. There may be one more little new low. So Is NG going to put in new highs from here?
Much more likely that this is an "a" down (or even a 3) and any rally will be a retrace to some Fibonacci point, followed by further legs down to 4.26 or 3.81, as 50% and .618 targets.
 
click to enlarge
I'm using the 5.58 spot month high for the Fib retrace points. Note how they fall into place with the 4th of lesser degree and the 3rd wave gap.

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