Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Euro Targets

From Nov.26, Where Is the Euro
" Long term the Euro topped out  July08 at 1.6038 and moved down in 5 waves to 1.2329 a year ago October .  That .3709 long term move down  is retraced .78 at 1.5222.
A failure by the Euro from here projects to a minimum 1.2856 as C=.618 f A. And of course the C=A at 1.1435."
That day the Euro high was 1.5145.
Today the Euro has decisively taken out 1.34 , the .618 retrace of the the entire B wave up from 1.2323 to 1.5145.
The next  Fibonacci retrace point providing potential for a pivot is the .76 at 1.2995.
Note that is just over the 1.2856  minimum target for this C wave down.
 click to enlarge

The weekly bar has a 5 wave structure down from 1.514, and it appears we are in the 5.
The  5 =1 at 1.29 as well.
So there is a pretty significant cluster of support around 1.29/1.30.
So will that be it?

The Euro bottomed in 2000 at .8229 following its debut. It then rallied for 8 years into the 1.6038 high.
The .382 retrace of that is at 1.3030. The 50%  retrace is at 1.2138, and the .618 is at 1.12.

My guess is that THIS ABC stucture down will carry to at LEAST the 50% (or 1.21). I don't see any reason for the ABC structure to be unusually quick or shallow. And even if you were thinking that the .82 to 1.60 move was structured in 5 waves, what would  be the 4th of lesser degree was at 1.16 : a likely target for a pullback. 
So the support at 1.30/1.29 will likely produce a decent bounce, and it needs careful watching for structural clues to it's nature...


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