Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Euro Short Term Update

The Euro may be in a ' c" up of a 4th wave following the overnight lows. That idea is negated if there is an overlap of the 1 down at 1.3594. The "b" of the 4th is irregular , down and under, at 1.25 x the "a" wave.
 
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The "c" currently is 1.15 x the "a" wave. If that count is correct, certainly a test of 1.34 is in store, and given the winding up over that level it may well have a shot  at taking it out. Of course the huge short open interest is problematic, so beware a quick retest of the breakdown point if it gets it. On the other hand,  I have an unconventional count of a series of 1,2's down possible, and a seriously damaging move through 1.34 then  accelerating would be consistent with that. 
  
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Longer term a rally back above 1.40 would call for a lot of re examining of the count.
 

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