Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Euro Correction Update

click to enlarge
The "c" is equal to .62 of the "a".
The bounce off the lows has retraced a Fibonacci. .23 of the 1.5140 to 1.3440 move at today's high 1.3818.

Of course .236 seems a shallow and briefly lived correction ...and there are a lot of shorts...but the leg down beginning at 1.5140 ( or the first leg down) may very well not be complete at 1.3440. This corrective bounce up is a .38 retrace of the 1.45 to 1.34 sub wave  
at 1.3840.
On the downside,  1.3680 is the .618 retrace of the wave labeled "c",  and this structure up probably needs to hold that to remain intact.
In other words there is no reason to see this move up, SO FAR, as anything other than a corrective bounce of,  possibly,  ONLY a subwave of the move down. It'll have to do a lot better to indicate otherwise. Like take out the .618 upside retrace at 1.45.( hello GS).

The lows at 1.34 are at the .618 retrace of the entire B wave structure up from 1.29 to 1.5140. That is not insignificant as support and possible pivot point. So taking that out and closing below it will put a hole in the Euro bull case.

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