Thursday, February 4, 2010

WTI Elliott

The WTI has what sure looks like a 5 wave count UP from the lows.  There is a potential, low probability, alternate count down from the highs of 84 to be labeled as an " abc ".  That of course would be quite bullish and imply risk of higher highs at some point.
I mention it principally because of the "look" of the respective waves and the near c=a on the structure down.
I say low probability because of the Big Picture discussed MANY times in previous posts; long term  bearish wave counts across the board with a medium term correction up complete, certainly nearly complete. That view is backed up by fundamental's: USD strength, credit contraction, unemployment, CRE and residential RE, equity risk, etc etc etc.
So for now rather than looking for new WTI highs. The leg up to yest. highs gets labeled an "a' of what will likely turn out to be an abc consolidation here, prior to making fresh lows.

 
click to enlarge
It could also turn out to be an x wave if I stretch the count on the way up to fit. More will be revealed.

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