Some Fib retrace could be expected here; a retrace rather than a reversal because of the overlap of the 1st leg up at 5.31. See Natural Gas . So it could be a choppy and protracted -a-, -b-, -c- or a sharp X wave. Since I am expecting a series of abc's down I am leaning towards an X.
In either case selling bounces is the theme across all markets at this point and a 50% at 5.43 or .618 at 5.52 would be real gifts going into the shoulder.
Seasonally while Natural Gas typically has a low in here, the window is certainly open until late February, and the winter high came in quite late.