Euro Recap

Quite a bit of discussion on various blogs on the problems facing the Euro and what it portends economically and politically.None of this is really unexpected....pls see the Nov 30th post,  Dubai Not Unique  
Dec. 15 post,  Dollar Rules  
 and  Weak Euro and More To Come    from Dec 21st.
So most potential wave counts put the Euro this Sunday morning in the a very minor consolidation , most likely within a -3- of 3 down (though it could be subdividing again).
 Below is one possible count with a running -2- wave correction. Notice the c=a, and the b wave overlaps and chop.

The next significant support is the .618 retrace of the entire B wave move up and that comes in around 1.34. However if we're right in the middle of a Euro collapse after falling roughly .15 that will get sliced through in short order.     
                             click to sharpen.
l">

Greek Ouzo crisis escalates into global margin call as confidence ebbs   By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Published: 5:46PM GMT 07 Feb 2010Comments 24 | Comment on this article

Flow data shows an abrupt withdrawal of German and Asian capital from Club Med debt markets. The EU's refusal to offer Greece anything beyond stern words and a one-month deadline for harsher austerity – while admirable in one sense – is to misjudge how fast confidence is ebbing. Greece's drama has already metastasised into a wider systemic crisis. The world risks a replay of the Lehman collapse if this runs unchecked, this time involving sovereign dominoes.
Barclays Capital says the net external liabilities of Greece are 87pc of GDP, or €208bn (£182bn). Spain is worse at 91pc (€950bn), and Portugal worse yet at 108pc (€177bn); Ireland is 68pc (€123bn), Italy is 23pc, (€347bn). Add East Europe's bubble and foreign debts top €2 trillion.....

Excellent recap by the ever entertaining Ambrose Evans-Pritchard .



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

WTI Update- a 4 Handle Future?

Image
From my last post Dec 28, " Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave." Hourly click to enlarge As can be seen, WTI is in the high side of that range and evidencing some recent weakness. It does have a "look" that could produce a higher high at the top end of the range there, or even somewhat higher.  However the greater risk, short and medium term is to the downside from here.  It may turn out that a "b" wave chop down is in the cards with a subsequent "c" wave up,  but that kind of move can be deep and retest the lows . See above Fib retracements, particularly the .618 and .78  Longer Term Risk For Bulls AND Bears The Decline click to enlarge While the labeling of the subwaves above can be argued,  including whether the wave down is completed yet or not,   the $
Read more

Biden Climate Plan and Global GDP

Image
 KUDOS, and I mean it, to Biden. Real implementation will be incredibly difficult and failure will mean doom (don t think your grandchildren are going to survive in a world without plankton).  By next election cycle the path the world is on will be visible to all and most likely we will see spiking carbon emissions, devastating weather catastrophes, the need for even more investment, carbon taxes, and even more weaponizing of painful choices.  The pandemic definitely decreased global emissions. To stay under the limit on future emissions needed to keep climate temps under the 1.5 centigrade increase, that same decrease in emissions Y on Y has to be achieved every year until 2030. Reality No.1)  Co2 and other greenhouse gas emissions have a very high correlation w Global GDP, .87 to .93 Climate change is unfortunately global so don t bother with arguments based on regional data. In the United States some progress growing GDP while cutting emissions has been achieved in some locales. Mos
Read more

Crude Oil Update

Image
WTI has  a long history of affinity for Fibonacci retracement levels. It just touched the .618 retrace of this years move down. 1 yr. chart click to enlarge There is also the little issue of seasonality. click to enlarge And Hedge Funds have been piling in over the last 3 weeks. John Kemp of Reuters reports they are net long an additional 112 mml bbl wti= Brent on both Nymex and ICE. So on the downside taking out the Fib .618 retrace of the move up and break out to the upside around 51.15 will help sharpen things up.  The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Trading foreign exchange and energy derivatives carry a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.  The above is merely an abstract theoretical discussion mostly for my own entertainment, not trading advice or a recommendation.
Read more