Sunday, February 7, 2010

Euro Recap

Quite a bit of discussion on various blogs on the problems facing the Euro and what it portends economically and politically.None of this is really unexpected....pls see the Nov 30th post,  Dubai Not Unique  
Dec. 15 post,  Dollar Rules  
 and  Weak Euro and More To Come    from Dec 21st.
So most potential wave counts put the Euro this Sunday morning in the a very minor consolidation , most likely within a -3- of 3 down (though it could be subdividing again).
 Below is one possible count with a running -2- wave correction. Notice the c=a, and the b wave overlaps and chop.

The next significant support is the .618 retrace of the entire B wave move up and that comes in around 1.34. However if we're right in the middle of a Euro collapse after falling roughly .15 that will get sliced through in short order.     
                             click to sharpen.
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Greek Ouzo crisis escalates into global margin call as confidence ebbs   By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Published: 5:46PM GMT 07 Feb 2010Comments 24 | Comment on this article

Flow data shows an abrupt withdrawal of German and Asian capital from Club Med debt markets. The EU's refusal to offer Greece anything beyond stern words and a one-month deadline for harsher austerity – while admirable in one sense – is to misjudge how fast confidence is ebbing. Greece's drama has already metastasised into a wider systemic crisis. The world risks a replay of the Lehman collapse if this runs unchecked, this time involving sovereign dominoes.
Barclays Capital says the net external liabilities of Greece are 87pc of GDP, or €208bn (£182bn). Spain is worse at 91pc (€950bn), and Portugal worse yet at 108pc (€177bn); Ireland is 68pc (€123bn), Italy is 23pc, (€347bn). Add East Europe's bubble and foreign debts top €2 trillion.....

Excellent recap by the ever entertaining Ambrose Evans-Pritchard .



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