Wednesday, January 13, 2010

WTI Down Trend

The WTI reversed from an important point, the culmination of a 5 count up on the C wave at $84. See Mon.s
 WTI Trending .  It terminated right in the middle of the target zone  for that wave , see WTI 2010 High . That was the 3rd ABC up from 32.40, and that's all that's allowed in Elliott. So what next?

click to enlarge
The move down has described a nice channel and the -3- is 1.382 of -1-. After a consolidation, a -5- down would be expected, and Elliott methods for projecting 5th wave targets all easily overlap 79.12, the 1st wave of C up, confirming the reversal.
Longer Term the completion of a triple zig-zag move up from 32.40 implies NEW LOWS under 32.40.

 But maybe it could be counted differently, the weekly bar chart ALMOST looks like it could be a 5 up.
So given a potential B wave or X wave down, or even a 2 wave back, the .618 retrace targets 52.12.
So risk to the lower $50's is HIGH. Additionally 2 out of the 3 LESS BEARISH scenarios allow for subsequent rallies that DO NOT EXCEED the recent $84 high, ie a triangle or flat.



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