Thursday, January 21, 2010

UNG and NG


                                   click for sharper image                                  


It looks like UNG has 5 waves up from the Dec 8.50 low to 10.85  and that is retraced 50% around 9.70. Expectations would be for another move up to resist around 12.15, also a " c=a " from 9.80
It is important to note that the next couple of mo.s of the NG curve are in backwardation and June through Oct. is a relatively flat .40 or so. This mitigates the structural risk of the roll that has been plaguing this ETF and encouraging the shorts. Currently short interest is 4.8%.

Conversely the NG appears to be under continuing pressure see Natural Gas Update  
Perhaps the new CFTC position limits will encourage the "closed end fund" idea, and drive buying in the face of NG weakness.

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