Thursday, January 28, 2010

Natural Gas

From Tuesday Jan 26.

"The c=a at 5.13 on a break lower.
Additionally the .618 retrace of the Feb contract is at 5.13
Given the likely hood of this move down being corrective and choppy overall 5.13 may well be a tough level to get through." Short term it looks like at at least a bounce and perhaps a more complex and choppy structure to retrace some Fib level.

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 Given the above relationships and the fact that 5.13 is also the 50% retrace on the spot month chart, taking that level out with any kind of conviction will be significant and intermediate term bearish.
This market can retrace a long way back up before it confirms any intermediate term reversal. It would have to overlap the 5.81 point, also the .76 retrace of the abc structure down.


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Looking at the Weekly chart an initial ABC up is complete , note the overlap of the 1st leg up at 5.31 eliminating a potential 4th wave interpretation of this move down.  If this is an X or B wave structure down most likely it will back and fill now, in a series of abc's to make new lows under 4.15, but not 2.40. If we have a 1,2,1,2 down it will crap out from a slight bounce with force. So what the bounce does here will be very interesting. If you are a bull this is probably where you get in. Given the overall macroeconomic picture , fundamentals , and 2 of 3 Elliott counts ..you sell a move up.

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