Natural Gas

From Tuesday Jan 26.

"The c=a at 5.13 on a break lower.
Additionally the .618 retrace of the Feb contract is at 5.13
Given the likely hood of this move down being corrective and choppy overall 5.13 may well be a tough level to get through." Short term it looks like at at least a bounce and perhaps a more complex and choppy structure to retrace some Fib level.

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 Given the above relationships and the fact that 5.13 is also the 50% retrace on the spot month chart, taking that level out with any kind of conviction will be significant and intermediate term bearish.
This market can retrace a long way back up before it confirms any intermediate term reversal. It would have to overlap the 5.81 point, also the .76 retrace of the abc structure down.

click to sharpen
Looking at the Weekly chart an initial ABC up is complete , note the overlap of the 1st leg up at 5.31 eliminating a potential 4th wave interpretation of this move down.  If this is an X or B wave structure down most likely it will back and fill now, in a series of abc's to make new lows under 4.15, but not 2.40. If we have a 1,2,1,2 down it will crap out from a slight bounce with force. So what the bounce does here will be very interesting. If you are a bull this is probably where you get in. Given the overall macroeconomic picture , fundamentals , and 2 of 3 Elliott counts sell a move up.


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