Natural Gas Breaking Lower?

After the expected consolidation within the range, see Natural Gas Consolidation , it finally looks like Natty is going to break to fresh lows.

                            click to enlarge

The c=a at 5.13 on a break lower.

Additionally the .618 retrace of the Feb contract is at 5.13

Given the likely hood of this move down being corrective and choppy overall 5.13 may well be a tough level to get through.