Thursday, January 21, 2010

Heating Oil Trend Line

The one bright spot in the refining universe, Heating Oil, is on the verge of a serious cooling off.

Weekly Continuation 

click to enlarge
Note the 5 wave structure down from 4.1586 to 1.1319, a 73% decline. The corrective double zig zag back up failed to even retrace .382. though it nicely climbed the trend line. Once again, we have an initial 5 wave's down , and in Elliott theory it will be followed by at least one more leg, in this case down. And it's sitting right above that trend line. So where's it goin'?
 The move up from the '99 low of .292 to 4.1586 was retraced a Fib .78 at 1.13. Lets call that A down. If the C= .618 of A that targets .35, roughly where it started from. That is not uncommon with commodity spikes. A little less draconian might be C=A in % terms targeting .60.  The minimum move that could be hoped for if it were to overlap the 1.13 low would be the .85 retrace of .29 to 4.1586 at .87.
Feb. 5 min.
click to enlarge
Short term this contract looks like it's still got work to do on the downside. A lower settle will take out the trend line on the continuation chart . The previous low and probably the next support on that chart is at 1.8956.




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