Friday, December 18, 2009

WTI Rediscovers Geopolitics or Something

Excuse me for being a little cynical here. First we had a story on the "Gulfo" yesterday, and the timing of that had NOTHING to do with USD strength I'm sure. Now we have "War" between Iran and Iraq. Or is it Iran and the US? 
In any case crude is not at $15. THATS when you invade and get a nice pop. Up here they're " prayin for the Apocalypse" . Just before Christmas too.... It might work for a little bit. Unfortunately as we know, if you buy the rumor on this stuff, the rush to sell the news usually results in a terrible whack. Besides they never stop selling the stuff, insurance premiums just go up.


However the reluctance of crude to do what it's "suppose" to do , correlate with the USD in recent days , has been notable. While that will be the larger fundamental influence longer term in the meantime what are we looking at? The move down in the above chart from 78.59 is easily counted as 5 waves. It is distinctly different from the choppy abc structure that preceded it, 82 to 72, however it IS roughly equal to it at $10. It could be there is an abc , 3-3-5 flat structure down complete. However as a correction to the 32.4 to 82.00 move it would be extremely shallow. So wait and see here.

No comments:

Post a Comment