Thursday, December 17, 2009

WTI Elliott Update

Is the bounce in WTI since Friday a correction or reversal ? From Mon. morning,
 "This count down looks a little more conventional and is likely complete short term or nearly complete , for an "a" down. The main point here is how long do these markets remain out of sync? Probably not long.

My expectations:  barely new highs on the SP accompanied by consolidations in the Euro and WTI,  followed by a race to oblivion.  Sorry Santa."  (clearly had it wrong on the Euro)

The current count reflects the probability of this move up being a short term correction, contained by the 50% retrace of the preceding move down, and structured in abc's.


The resumption of the trend down will be confirmed by an overlap of  70.60, the beginning of  yesterdays run up, and what would have been perhaps a -3- wave up.

click to enlarge
And conversely, if we get new highs over 73.55, something else is going on, at minimum a more complex and serious correction. Over 75.00 , the .618 retrace of the last leg down from 79.04 and alarm bells should be ringing. Given the USD strength this morning it appears unlikely.
And to revisit the comment from Monday,  
"The main point here is how long do these markets remain out of sync? Probably not long."

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