A Discussion of Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Fibonacci Ratio's focusing on Energy Mkt.s Crude, Products, and Natural Gas. Occasional Fundamental Analysis, Energy News and Rumor.
WTI Not Exactly Trending
How long can WTI chop around for? Usually this type of pattern is resolved by a resumption of the trend, in this case to new highs, but if it is in a B wave or X wave down that is correcting the move up from 32.50 to 82.00, choppy abc's with overlaps might be expected. So quite a while is the answer.
In the meantime "c" = "a " at 75.06.
From my last post Dec 28, " Before we get into next year, short term the WTI has a good deal of upside risk to between $48 and $54, with $51.50 being my favorite cluster of resistance/ and a measured target for a 4th wave." Hourly click to enlarge As can be seen, WTI is in the high side of that range and evidencing some recent weakness. It does have a "look" that could produce a higher high at the top end of the range there, or even somewhat higher. However the greater risk, short and medium term is to the downside from here. It may turn out that a "b" wave chop down is in the cards with a subsequent "c" wave up, but that kind of move can be deep and retest the lows . See above Fib retracements, particularly the .618 and .78 Longer Term Risk For Bulls AND Bears The Decline click to enlarge While the labeling of the subwaves above can be argued, including whether the wave down is completed yet or not, the $
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From FT Energy... US petroleum stocks fit for bursting Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Jan 14 11:45. Weekly US energy inventory data release on Wednesday confirmed the unbelievable. US petroleum stocks rose in the week despite especially cold weather in the region during the period. Meanwhile, Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter draws attention to the fact that aggregate inventory rose by 8.9m barrels, amongst the largest weekly aggregate increase ever. More absurdly still, gasoline stocks are now at levels not seen in two years — some 10m barrels higher than they were last year....... The market responded to the disconnect between distillate and gasoline demand by storing the former offshore in floating storage. This is easily done for distillates. But now that we’ve seen a bit of a pickup in demand for distillates because of the weather, a potential surplus of gasoline has been produced. And, unlike distillates, gasoline is not easily stored offshore. Hence the probab