Thursday, November 26, 2009

Where Is the Euro


click on chart to enlarge
The short term Elliott Wave count requires the Euro to hold the overlap of wave 1 at 1.4999 to keep the labeling as an impulse wave 3 up. Please note that the Fib .618 retrace at 1.4986, is just under that level.
It is possible I suppose, that we are seeing some kind of intermediate term B wave structure up from 1.4624, but given the huge size and maturity of the Euro/USD  trade etc , any intermediate term down leg has serious risk potential to gain momentum. In other words the Euro needs to hold here.

Long term the Euro topped out  July08 at 1.6038 and moved down in 5 waves to 1.2329 a year ago October .  That .3709 long term move down  is retraced .78 at 1.5222.
A failure by the Euro from here projects to a minimum 1.2856 as C=.618 f A. And of course the C=A at 1.1435.

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