Thursday, November 5, 2009

Updates

The USD .78 retrace is at 75.55 and should hold there if the count is to remain the same , that it's made it's low. A double bottom would not be a surprise. The BIG PICTURE is however that this trade is very very crowded and advanced.

The SP 500 chart shows nothing to encourage bulls. The move up off the lows does not appear in anyway to be anything other than corrective and it is no longer oversold.
Resistance is 1065 the 50% retrace as well as a previous high. Risk of a 3rd wave down is HIGH.

WTI is showing the most likelyhood of attaining a new high. It's had a very corrective appearing structure on the downside over the last 10 days with lots of spikes and overlaps. From the last WTI post,    
WTI Leads and Retraces .78"The thrust up from 65.05 can also be counted as not being complete and still shy of a 5th wave. The 5=1 (of this move from 65.05) is at 83.37, ADDITIONALLY if the thrust up is seen a 5th wave out of a triangle ending at 65.05 it would equal the first move up from the 32.40 lows to 50.40 at 83.05. ( I don't like that interpretation just yet, but it sufficiently muddies the water and corrective legs like ambiguous counts.) "
That 5=1 within the last leg up from 65.05 is now at 83.00.

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