Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Equities Commodities Euro etc.

The SP and the Dow are now within 1% of the 50% retrace of the entire move down. Perhaps there is one more tiny new high , perhaps not. The whole world is aware of the USD carry trade, the Central Bank / Investment Bank  market manipulation vs.  real economic distress. Very hard to get long at this juncture.
Take a look at the Yen and Euro charts



click on chart to enlarge

Both of these currencies look to be very vulnerable to a sell off. Which brings me back to the carry trade and
equities ; between USD short covering risk aqnd the 50% retrace on equities, how do you do anything but sell,  especially given the historic downside risk of a 3 or C down of Super Cycle degree?                              
 Crude looks like it's in a corrective move down. The last month of sideways trading is NOT an impulse wave down .   While a retest of 82 or  new highs just over at the 83 resist would normally be expected, the above carry trade story makes it VERY difficult to get on that train. 

                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                


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