Monday, November 16, 2009

Crude Update



Note the 50% retrace and potential overlap of wave 1 by wave 4 in the above chart at 77.89.
As mentioned previously,  the .382 retrace of 65.05 to 82.00 is just under the current lows at 75.53.
The "c" = "a" down hits at 75.06.

The WTI and products have decoupled slightly from the USD and SP, but the Retail Sales numbers at 8:30 will be important. Expectations are for + .9% vs Sept. - 1.5%.   Given the surprise pullback in consumer sentiment last week, worse than expected consumer credit (down for 8th straight mo. last week and by 50% more than expected) and big time drop in DOE implied demand for products , could be room for a surprise in retail sales.  The economists haven't been doing so well lately.                  

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