Tuesday, October 20, 2009

WTI Wedge Failure Portends What?


WTI has a completed count up from $69 with a wedge shaped 5th , from Thur.s 74.79 low, being taken out this morning. Now it may have well another wave up to new highs still in it to complete the whole move up. Or not. The wedge formation argues against there being another wave, since it's usually found in a final position. There is however, the asymmetry of the abc up from 65 that argues for another wave up at some point ( it really looks like a 3 wave from 69).
On the Fibonacci front there are a number of counter intuitive alternative counts that have a 79.60ish to 79.90 target zone. But for starters the Nov contract had a c=a up at the 79.56 point. That would be the c starting from the 65.05 low and the a from the July low of 61.38.
So at this point WTI has to get damage done before it can be confirmed done to the upside. How about the 50% retrace point of the presumed 3 wave up from 68.88 at 74.64? A little nearer by under 77.60 the 50% of the last leg up from 74.79 would also add to the downside mo.

This move up in WTI as well as all other asset classes is a corrective rally. When it's done, it's resuming the  long term trend. As previously discussed, it's a very crowded trade with almost no shorts left anywhere except NG.

No comments:

Post a Comment