Thursday, October 29, 2009

WTI Update

Crude oils final $17 thrust from $65.05 to $82.00 will take a lot of downside work before confirming a reversal is in. The .382 retrace is 75.53, the 50% retrace is  $73.57, and the .618 is 71.53. In a bullish interpretation of the thrust it would be assumed to be the beginning of an extended move, so TOO deep a retrace would be unlikely, while a retest of the presumed break out point, even a slight push below , would be normal. The long term $147.30 to 32.40 move was retraced .382 at 76.30, and  the resist line across the tops of the Dec contract cuts right about 77.00. Below the 50% @ 73.57 and the bull interpretation  looks very unlikely.

                                                                click on chart to enlarge
  However the likely reversal in the USD and equities begs for common sense and lends weight to interpreting the thrust as a completion of a final series of abc's up from 32.40. A move  above $80.00 would  invalidate that count. Really $78.80 should hold it. 



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