Crude oils final $17 thrust from $65.05 to $82.00 will take a lot of downside work before confirming a reversal is in. The .382 retrace is 75.53, the 50% retrace is $73.57, and the .618 is 71.53. In a bullish interpretation of the thrust it would be assumed to be the beginning of an extended move, so TOO deep a retrace would be unlikely, while a retest of the presumed break out point, even a slight push below , would be normal. The long term $147.30 to 32.40 move was retraced .382 at 76.30, and the resist line across the tops of the Dec contract cuts right about 77.00. Below the 50% @ 73.57 and the bull interpretation looks very unlikely.
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However the likely reversal in the USD and equities begs for common sense and lends weight to interpreting the thrust as a completion of a final series of abc's up from 32.40. A move above $80.00 would invalidate that count. Really $78.80 should hold it.
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