Friday, October 30, 2009

WTI Leads and Retraces .78

So much for common sense. See  WTI Update 
The crude retraced a Fibonacci .78 of it's move down off the $82 high yesterday. Quite a move.
Compare that to the SP's Fib retrace of .37, and the Euro's .46 retrace.

Also note the overlap of  $80 negating a potential 1,2..1,2, structure down,  highlighting the move as a series of choppy abc's down. The move down now looks quite corrective in character.

The thrust up from 65.05 can also be counted as not being complete and still  shy of a 5th wave. The 5=1 (of this move from 65.05)  is at  83.37, ADDITIONALLY if the thrust up is seen a 5th wave out of a triangle ending at 65.05 it would equal the first move up from the 32.40 lows to 50.40 at 83.05. ( I don't like that interpretation just yet, but it sufficiently muddies the water and corrective legs like ambiguous counts.)

An alternative bearish take is that WTI retraced .78 and resumes the down move , perhaps in continued choppy fashion leaving ANOTHER weird thrust or X wave to ponder. Or alt. 2:  consolidate within the range first producing a little b, and c prior to moving lower .

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