Thursday, October 1, 2009

WTI Floats Free

For the past two days WTI and the products have defied gravity, the USD, stock markets, fundamentals, and common sense to rally back to the resistance line (previous support).
Perhaps this is the beginning of Q4 money being put to work. All those pension funds and new hedge funds getting in there. If it is, there could be a hell of a hangover and a lot of ground to make up if equities and the Euro keep falling . Don't think that WTI goes it's own way forever.
Or perhaps crude is reflecting the geopolitical tension with Iran. That can happen.
But in 25 years I have yet to see real physical bbl's NOT make it to market for any length of time. The big effect is insurance premiums for shipping go up.
Personally I think the risk of a global h1n1 pandemic depressing energy use is far greater than the risk of Obama choosing to fight a prolonged AND EXPENSIVE war. Be that as it may crude is 70.21 NOT 60.21.  


There are many potential permutations on the count down. After an 8 month long, $42.60 move up that is clearly corrective from 32.40 to 75, the move down from 75.00 is likely a B wave structure.  For it to be over in 5 weeks after retracing merely .234 of the move up is HIGHLY unlikely. More likely for a B structure within a corrective move of greater degree, is lots of abcx's , overlaps, headfkes and chop. Just what we've been seeing for 2 months.
In any case, short term I 'm guessing we've seen the range for a while, and the next permutation is down.
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