Thursday, October 22, 2009

The Herd Catches the Scent

What happened in the last hour?  Do you really think it was Bove's comments on whatever bank?
More likely a highly overbought and weakening market , fed on HFT and ungodly injections of liquidity, starting to sense the end.  There was noise coming from various central bankers re excess liquidity (China) and currency trade concerns (Europe), and  moves to tighten down on  HFT,  but really it's just the natural progression of this market and WE look for a headline to explain it.

Corrective structures CAN be very complex and difficult to analyze /trade. The Dow and SP are just under a 50% retrace of the whole move down and have moved up in choppy abc structures. Obviously if the SP overlaps the beginning of this last leg up at 1019 it will be seen as being all over.  
Shorter term various Fibonacci retraces of that leg will add conviction to the downside as they are taken out: the 50% retrace is at 1060 , and .618 retrace at 1050.


Another MARGINAL new high say 1120, is certainly possible , true for crude too at $83ish but that air pocket last night reminds us of what we fear.

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