Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Heads Up

The potential for an acceleration to the downside is HIGH.

                                                Chart from Daneric's Elliott Waves

The above log scale chart of the Dow has the supporting trend line for the entire move up right under today's close. I'm not sure how widely followed a log scale would be on such a relatively short term and small scale move but it sure looks significant on that chart.

The above SP chart illustrates a likely count of 1,2-1,2,3, that is a couple hours away from accelerating down and taking out 1060, the 50% retrace and 1050, the .618 retrace of the last leg up . Additionally the support trend line drawn off the July 865 lows and Oct 2  1019 low cuts around 1055.   There is an alternate count     I've mentioned that has a failure at 1095 and only a single 1,2,3 down.  Both of those counts imply a likely end to the corrective rally beginning 666 and RISK of new lows under that number has to be considered  HIGH.   That interpretation would be supported by the penetration of the support trend line on the Dow in the chart above.

               click on chart to enlarge

 Note the .382 retrace of the C wave at roughly the overlap of the last leg up around 1019.

There is a potential alternative count that has the move down from 1100 as an "abc" allowing one more new high . The SP's have to reverse from here and take out 1080 the .618 retrace of today's move pronto to have any hope of seeing that.  And of course the Dow trend line has held SO FAR.

Obviously an equities collapse would be accompanied by devastation in commodities , especially WTI.
All this will be helped along by the USD short covering once THAT gets started in earnest. More on that later.


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