The Euro topped out July08 at 1.6038 and moved down in 5 waves to 1.2329 last October . That .3709 long term move down , call it A, was retraced exactly .76 at the high of 1.5062 last Thursday one year later . Additionally the "c" up from 1.2457 has a very complete look to it's count at the high. That is likely the termination of B .
The completed B implies a high risk of Euro weakness to under 1.2329 with C=A targeting 1.1353. Of course the 4th of lesser degree ( on the REALLY long term chart) may also offer support around 1.16 but these are still huge moves having presumably a huge negative impact on USD commodities.
Confirmation probably would take an overlap of 1.40, a little closer, the .618 retrace of that move up from 1.40 hits about 1.441. All a long way off.
No comments:
Post a Comment