Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Natural Gas Update


The count up from the lows is most easily done as a series of abc, x's and not a classic impulse wave of 5 sub waves. Unfortunately. It means we can expect almost anything: an X wave of greater degree back to be followed by another series of abc's up, an X wave of similar degree go straight to abc up for a 3rd series, even new lows under 2.40 cannot be ruled out, in fact, that might be the most likely resolution.

However the big picture is supportive. See Monthly Bar Chart NG    After hitting a low of 2.41, an 85% pullback from 15.78 and getting within 45 cents of the 1.95 target, and now having retraced  89% of the last leg down from 4.08, the greater risk still remains to the upside. It may just be a tough grind up structured in abc's. Not unusual for natty.

Shorter term a 50% pull back of the whole move up is around 3.15, a .618 of the last series of abc's comes in at 3.31 and the trendlines will provide some trigger points.

No comments:

Post a Comment